Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label strategy. Show all posts

Sunday, April 24, 2016

Baccarat "Unbeatable" Strategy

Here below is a melting-pot of a couple of articles about Baccarat. The sources and other interesting links are at the end of this posts.



Baccarat is a fascinating game due to the fact that it is THE game of THE biggest high rollers and casino whales.  And it is also THE favorite game of the Agent 007, James Bond.

No matter how many dozens of millions of dollars changed hands by playing these game.  And no matter how books and "strategies" have been written and devised on Baccarat.  Baccarat still a very simple game of pure luck.  It's nothing more than flipping a coin.  

In Baccarat you got three choices: betting on the Banker, the Player or the tie.  If you bet on the Banker or Player and a Tie happen.  You get your betting amounts back.

BUT, Baccarat is the casino game that offer the lowest house edge. The house edge is:

1.06% on the Banker bet. 45.8597% chance of winning.

1.24% on the Player bet.  44.6274% chance of winning.

14.36% on the Tie               9.5156% chance of a tie.

No need to say that the lower the house edge the better it is for you.

Not only is Baccarat 100% luck, the player doesn't even get to make any decisions in the game once it begins. In other words, you choose "Player" or "Banker", you place your bet, and that's it. The rest of the game plays out based on a predetermined set of rules.

There is NO strategy to decrease the house edge. Fortunately, the house edge on Baccarat is very low to start with. Still, the longer you play, and the more money you wager, the more you can expect to lose in the long run.

Oh - there is just one thing - If you bet on the "Banker", the house edge is ever so slightly less than if you bet on "Player". (1.0579% for Banker compared to 1.2351% for Player.) 

 

Baccarat "Unbeatable" Strategy

ALWAYS BET ON THE BANKER

Forget trends and always bet on the banker.  The banker offers the lowest house odd on any form of casino gambling.  The Banker's hand has the highest chance of winning with 45.8%.   Banker house edge: 1.06%

HIT-AND-RUN

Quit when you're ahead.  Take the money and go.

These two above strategies were successfully employed by Kerry Packer, The King of the Whales when he bring the casino to his knees on a couple of occasions. 

CHOOSE THE BACCARAT GAME WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF COMMISSION 

Find a Baccarat table with the least percentage of commission that will be deducted from the winnings of the player after the game. With this, the profit a baccarat player will get will be much higher than playing in a Baccarat table with a higher commission rate. Inform yourself well before betting a single dollar at a Baccarat table.  Get the most for your money. 

PLAY WITH THE LOWEST NUMBER OF DECKS 


Remember that the lower decks you play baccarat - the bigger your chances for winning are: this rule has been checked many times, and it was proved to work.

STOP-LOSS / THREE STRIKES OUT
 
Stay calm, even if you lose. DO NOT CHASE LOSSES and try getting your money back at once, it does not work usually.  Usually my rules of thumb is the three strikes out.  I leave after 3 consecutive losses.  It prevent me from losing big, tilting and chasing losses.

NEVER BET ON A TIE

With 14.36% edge for the house.  It would be foolish to bet on a tie.  8 to 1 odds is one of the worst in any casino game.

NEVER PUT ALL YOUR MONEY ON A SINGLE BET

Don't believe in your good star.  She's never there when you need it.

NEVER BET MONEY YOU CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE

This one is most important but often, the most overlooked.

FORGET TRENDS, STREAKS, AND PATTERNS

This is a game of pure luck.  The Universe doesn't care if the Banker or the Banker won 10 times in a row.  Remember that each and every deal or an event is completely independent of the following event or the preceding event.

BETTING SYSTEMS?

All betting systems are flawed. Progressive systems like yours usually do when but with occasional large losses. Over the long run, you will do no better nor worse than the flat bettor or user of any other system.  The Martingale is dangerous on every game and in the long run will never win. However it is better to use in baccarat than roulette, just because of the lower house edge.

 

In a few words, play with few decks, stick to the banker's bet, and manage your money appropriately.

Never Play Mini-Baccarat
The truth is that you will be helping yourself in the long run if you play baccarat instead of mini-baccarat. Mini-baccarat tends to be faster paced and you will most likely lose more small bets- which will end up equaling to more money lost than if it were larger bets.


Baccarat Chemin-de-Fer is the game played in James Bond's movies.
  1. If no one has an eight or a nine, Punto and Banco each have the choice to accept or refuse a third card. This is why Chemin de Fer is a game of skill, unlike the other major baccarat variants which are based on luck only. If a third card is accepted, it is placed face-up on the baccarat table. Punto is always the first to accept or reject a third card, followed by Banco. The hands are then turned face-up to be compared.
Should I accept a third card when playing Chemin de Fer Baccarat?
Most players of Chemin de Fer Baccarat follows a set of guidelines grounded in mathematics and tradition. When you are the Punto representative, other people’s money will be at stake so they may object if you wish to go against these guidelines.
  • Accept a third card if your hand totals 0, 1, 2, 3 or 4
  • Refuse a third card if your hand totals 6 or 7
As you can see, hands totaling 5 are not covered by the guidelines.

 

Reveal the Most Common Myths About Baccarat Game http://baccarat-gurus.com/baccarat-myths.htm


Thanks to its big popularity and easiness, baccarat card game has many admirers all over the world today; being the game of luck, it attracts many people because they do not need learning difficult strategies or systems to beat the game though do not stop believing these systems really work. Actually, baccarat casino game is full of legends and myths which can prevent your winning if you trust them; look at these common baccarat myths and remember which moments to avoid when play baccarat.


Myth # 1: Baccarat is the game of aristocrats.

Truth: Yes, baccarat was played only by rich and noble people before. Today casinos try to support the image of baccarat being the sophisticated game which invites only aristocratic people, but it does not mean that you are prohibited to play if you do not have millions of dollars. Baccarat welcomes everyone: those people who are ready to bet only 5 bucks can easily do it in every casino today. Find the best place to play online baccarat at Casino Listings!

Myth #2: Baccarat is worth playing only if you sit at the big table.

Truth: Many serious baccarat gambling gurus prefer tables where small bets are also allowed because it is much easier to win more money there; you have big chances to lose all your money soon if you choose the table with $100 as a minimum bet.

Myth #3: It is easy to win baccarat if you use patterns.

Truth: Never think of patterns! If a banker wins 10 times in a row for example, it does not mean that s/he has lower chances to win the next round too: the chances of a banker and a player are always the same, but, as a rule, bankers win more often because of house edge.

Myth #4: A winning strategy will help me to win baccarat for sure!

Truth: Gosh! Do you still believe that? Baccarat is the game of luck just like online slots; so, never trust all those systems and strategies which are ready to guarantee you a winning. Some "experts" try to sell baccarat systems, and poor players are ready to spend their money if only it helps them winning. But it won't!

Myth #5: Card counting works for baccarat too.

Truth: Yes, both blackjack and baccarat are played with the same deck of cards; but the difference is that cards are back to the shoe in blackjack and you can change your bet during the game: such an opportunity can give you the advantage during the game. Baccarat does not offer you the same steps and that is why there is no reason to use card counting here. This strategy will not work for baccarat.


The Kings Of Baccarat Whales

  
Australian billionaire Kerry Packer broke the bank one more time.  Visiting the private Baccarat pit and alternating with a little Blackjack at $250.000 a hand. To the dismay of MGM Grand owner Kirk Kerkorian, after less than two hours, Kerry Packer left the casino $24 Million richer.  After his huge win, "Hit and Run Packer" was no longer welcomed in the MGM Grand casino.  Further proof that those blood-sucking casinos don't want you to win.  







 




Sources:
http://baccarat-gurus.com/baccarat-gambling.htm
http://baccarat-gurus.com/baccarat-myths.htm
http://baccarat-gurus.com/baccarat-tips.htm
http://www.allcasinoneeds.com/12-winning-baccarat-strategies/
http://www.onlinecasinoreports.com/guides/cardgames/baccarat/how-to-win-at-baccarat.php
http://www.casinosonline.com.au/baccarat/strategy/
http://www.baccaratsite.net/

http://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/
http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/baccarat/

http://www.europebaccarat.com/tips-game-baccarat.html
http://voices.yahoo.com/strategies-winning-baccarat-165051.html?cat=11
http://www.baccaratodds.com/baccarat-strategy-2/strategy-to-play-baccarat-identify-the-streak/
http://www.baccaratodds.com/baccarat-articles/baccarat-strategy-myth-or-possibility/
http://www.baccaratodds.com/
 
http://www.gamblinghelp.biz/wpblog/smart-chasing-of-losses/

http://www.aboutbaccarat.com/chemin-de-fer-baccarat/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baccarat#Chemin_de_Fer
http://wizardofodds.com/games/chemin-de-fer/

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Perfect Heads-Up Limit Hold' Em Strategy part 2


COMPARING THE PLAYING STYLE OF PHIL IVEY, ANDY BEAL, POLARIS, AND TEXAS HOLD' EM HEADS UP POKER "THE BRAIN" TO DEVICE YOUR OWN



At the highest level of excellence.  There is two obvious reasons that push you to excel in an particular activity. OBSESSION and/or PROFESSION.  So what is the fuel behind the success and the excellence of our four champions?

PROFESSION - Phil Ivey plays for a living.
OBSESSION - Andy Beal was obsessed with facing the bests to be the best.
OBSESSION - Polaris was created to beat the best pro players.
PROFESSION - Texas Hold' Em Heads Up Poker machine was manufactured to legally take the maximum amounts of money out of patrons's pockets.

As you can see in the four above examples.  Those who are mainly fueled by OBSESSION wants to be THE best in the world.  And those doing it as a PROFESSION are mainly interested in the money. 

Now that we know they main motivation.  Let's analyze their playing style and do a mix of it all to create The Ultimate Heads-Up Hold' Em Winning Strategy.




First of all, as I see it. 
All four are hyper aggressive.
All but Ivey are specialized and exclusively play Heads Up Limit Hold' Em.  Phil Ivey is excellent in any form of poker.


All four take on all comers.
All four want to be the best in the world.
All four want to face the bests of the world.
No table selection and bum hunting here! 
 

Phil Ivey learned the game by playing it.
Andy Beal learned the game by studying it.
And Polaris and "The Brain"...  Well?  Are both robots.


Phil Ivey's style is purely exploitative.
Andy Beal is a machine.  Purely GTO (Game Theory Optimal), probabilities and mathematics.
Polaris, despite using the Nash Equilibrium as his default strategy, is exploitative.  Since his playing style is all about adaptation.
"The Brain" can't be exploitative so it is GTO defensive.  All about preventing itself to be exploited.


What is the main strength of each player / robot?  Just one word to describe each player/bot's main secret to win and be so excellent at HULHE.
Phil Ivey = his reads
Andy Beal = mathematics
Polaris = adaptation
"The Brain" = defense


CHANGING GEARS / UNPREDICTIBILITY

We don't know much about Phil Ivey and Andy Beal unpredictibility and different play modes.  This isn't the case with Polaris and "The Brain"

Polaris changes gear to adapt.
"The Brain" changes gear for defense.

Polaris have 5 strategies
"The Brain" have 3 "tag team fighters"

Polaris 5 different strategies
1- Polaris default strategy is Nash Equilibrium.  
2- Exploitative Counter Strategy
3- A compromise between the first 2???
4- A team of all strategies to learn which one to use during the game???
5- 


"The Brain" 3 tag-team fighters
1- Neutral net with optimal number of bluff.
2- A slightly different style.
3- To finish off a short-stacked opponent.  I like this one!
Aggression level might change randomly.

 

So, if we can do a melting of those four winning strategies.  What it would be like? 

I will call it the P.I.B.B. in hommage of our four HULHE gods.
P.I.B.B. stands for... 

Polaris-Ivey-Beal-Brain
or  if you prefer
Poker-International-Big-Boss



Now let's look at the

HULHE P.I.B.B. Winning Strategy aka P.I.B.B. Strategy



Pre-Flop (LOOSE AGGRESSIVE)

  • Play nearly every hands


BUTTON (in position): 

  • Raise almost 100% of the time


BIG BLIND (out of position): 

  • Raise called button 75% of the time.
  • Always raise (3-Betting) with Ax, Kx, Q3s+, Q6+, J8+, T7s+, T9+, 98s+, 22+. 


Or you can use the Polaris's 3-Betting strategy from the BB.



Flop

  • Continuation Bet 100% of the time.


Turn

  • Continuation Bet 100% of the time.
  • 8-bet the turn with two pairs


River

  • Check-call all the way down the river with any Ace-high hand.
  • Call with K-high unless the board is scary.



Extreme Aggression
Be The Aggressor


Tag team fighters / different strategies (P.I.B.B.)

1- Extreme Aggression (default strategy) 
    Push or Fold when villain (or you) are 4BB
    (Ax, Kx, Qx, Jx, T8, T7s, 98s, 22+)


Guidelines

  • You are the aggressor
  • Leave after losing one buy-in
  • Keep playing when winning
  • Obsession with preventing tells



Now, after studying the playing style of my four heads up limit hold em icons, heros and idols.  I have enough information to devise my own strategy.  The Perfect Heads-Up Fixed Limit Hold' Em Strategy.   This will be the third part of this highly instructive guide.


PYGOD


For an analysis of the respective playing style of Polaris. Ivey. Beal. Brain. you have to see




The bio, profile, in-dept playing style of each of our four marvels read the following.





Stay tuned for the 3rd and last part of this article. Where I will devise a more usable, realistic, and adaptative strategy. Everything you need to know to be a $ucce$$ful poker player from playing style to money management. 






DO NOT COPY AND PASTE MY WORK INTO YOUR WEBSITE WITHOUT GIVING ME THE CREDIT

Optimal Heads-Up (Preflop) Limit Hold' Em


The Game has changed. As said in The Evolution of Poker: from Super System to math PhD reading Doyle Brunson's SUPER SYSTEM is not enough anymore to give you an edge.  The 2003 Chris Moneymaker's Effect changed all that. Now the common man has the opportunity to play thousands of hands and read all kind of poker books about game theory and exploitative plays. Todays fishes are way more skilled than their counterparts of 20 years ago.

Let me give the highlights of the Optimal Game Theory as ellaborated by highly lucrative online poker pros and some math wizards. These below were particularly devised for Heads-Up Fixed Limit Hold' Em Poker (HUHU / HULHE). HULHE is the simplest form of poker from a programming and mathematical standpoint. Just like chess computer Deep Blue defeated undisputed world chess champion Garry Kasparov. The best bots like Polaris and casino slot machine named "Texas Hold'em Heads Up Poker" AKA "The Brain" routinely beat world-class pro poker players. To this point, HULHE is similar to chess. While it is possible for Artificial Intelligence to play near optimal strategy to beat the best players. Both chess and Heads-Up Limit Hold' Em aren't solved games. 



Exploitative Players were information seekers to keep an edge over their opponents. They are the old guard.
Game Theory Optimal (GTO, optimal) players the highest limits of online plays. They don't much care what their opponent does. They seek to play a strategy designed in the long run to beat any other strategy in the long run.

An optimal player seeks to find the optimal strategy. For any game, there exists at least one optimal strategy. Any GTO poker pro dedicates his time and effort to get as close as possible to the Optimal Strategy. 

However you need to prioritize the practical over the theoretical at all times.

http://www.highstakesdb.com/community/topic/29580-sauce-on-gto/




Game Theoretical Optimum strategy






Button (Small Blind)
rarely fold in the SB (10/169)
23o-28o and 34o-38o

SB never fold to a raise
SB never raise his worst hands


Big Blind (Out Of Position)
NEVER fold in the BB

BB has the edge (act second and is live)
BB never fold to a raise
BB never re-raise with worst hands



Button & BB
R3 - Raise, reraise and re-re-raise if raised back only with AA


Playing different hands in the same way
However, Optimal Strategy dictates to vary strategy randomly in order to be deceptive.







The Two Rules

If Villain bet or raise, you should CALL (usually)

If you bet one street and Villain calls, you should BET again on the next card. (usually)


http://www.amazon.com/Pokers-1%25-Secret-Keeps-Players/dp/1496159187/ref=as_sl_pc_tf_til?tag=strenfight-20&linkCode=w00&linkId=QLUJOVHU7GARZLX7&creativeASIN=1496159187



Some of the people who applied professional level mathematics to real world poker. 

Nick Christenson
Alex Selby 
Ben "Sauce123" Sulsky
Matthew Janda
Dr. Darse Billings
Bill Chen
Jerrod Ankenman
Chris Fergusson








http://www.lvrevealed.com/articles/research/selby.html
http://www.archduke.org/simplex/index.html
http://www.archduke.org/simplex/art
http://www.highstakesdb.com/community/topic/29580-sauce-on-gto/

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/109/heads-up-limit/optimal-preflop-play-737220/
https://www.google.ca/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&rlz=1C1NCHB_enCA593CA593&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#safe=off&q=optimal%20heads%20up%20preflop%20holdem

http://www.pokerlistings.com/poker-bots-overrated-says-dr-darse-billings-29734
http://www.pokerlistings.com/strategy/psychology/poker-bots-the-beginning-of-the-end-um-no
http://www.pokerlistings.com/strategy/psychology/bot-this-too-robots-dont-have-girlfriends

http://billchenpoker.com/

Loose Aggressive Unpredictable


HOW YOU SHOULD PLAY 
HEADS-UP (1-on-1) POKER




LOOSE



AGGRESSIVE



UNPREDICTABLE






The three cornerstones that must be part of your game. You must play:

Loose – Always pre-flop and usually post-flop against the majority of opponents.
Aggressively – You need to play with frequent (but not mindless) aggression.
Unpredictably – Against all but the very worst opponents.


Get these three things right and you have the core of a good heads-up game.




HEADS-UP LIMIT HOLD' EM POKER





http://www.internettexasholdem.com/?Itemid=766

Monday, November 3, 2014

Perfect Heads-Up Limit Hold' Em Strategy part 1

STUDYING THE STRATEGIES OF THE FOUR ALL-TIME BEST HULHE PLAYERS, MAN OR MACHINE, TO CREATE YOUR OWN


The best way to find the Perfect Heads-Up Fixed Limit Hold' Em Strategy is to study the strategies used by the great ones.  For me the greats in HULHE are two humans plus two machines.  My two human players are Phil Ivey and Andy Beal.  My two poker bots are Polaris and Texas Hold ‘Em Heads Up Poker.  I will try to enter the brain of those four world-class experts to find and analyze their winning strategies.





Phil Ivey's HUHU FL HE strategy:

Step 1. Raise pre-flop in position

Raise pre-flop in the big blind with (1:1)
Ax, Kx, Q3s, Q6, J8, T7s, T9, 98s, 33+
Step 2. Continuation bet on the flop and turn 100% of the time
Step 3. Leaving after losing one buy-in

Keep playing when winning

Why is Phil Ivey so good?
a) hyper aggressive
b) incredible focus and concentration
c) uncanny ability to detect and exploit opponents's weaknesses and betting patterns
d) zero tilt factor
e) intimidating and fearsome reputation
f) unlimited bankroll





Andy Beal High Stakes Heads-Up Limit Hold' Em strategy
Step 1. Play nearly every hands
Raise (most of the time) every pot he enters
Step 2. Check-call all the way down to the river with any A-high hand
8-bets the turn with two pair
Step 3. Obsession with preventing tells

Why is Andy Beal so good?
a) Obsession
b) Specialization
c) Mathematical approach
d) High stakes
e) Ultra-aggressive
f) Impossible to read




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