"There are few sure things in investing … that betas (stocks, bonds, real estate) rise over time relative to cash is one of them." -- Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio
For perspective, here's a look at the past 28–years of stock market returns (S&P 500). For all of the bearish rhetoric on stocks that we hear from day to day, as you can see, if you're positioning for a down stock market for the year, you're making a low probability bet.
Since 1928, 73% of the time stocks finished the year in the green. On a rolling ten–year basis the average return for the S&P 500 has been 197%, with only five losing rolling ten–year periods out of 79.
